An Action-Packed Sunday Afternoon

And some action for you, too ...

October 20, 2024

 

Oct. 20, 2024
PRESENTED BY

NFL Blitz, Afternoon Delight: Each Sunday, I crack open my marble notebook to share some of my personal hand notes and help you finalize your prep on the afternoon slate.

If you missed Friday’s early-game breakdowns, you can check them out here.

John Laghezza

PHI (3-2), at NYG (2-4): Had to rejigger the calculus on this one when Big Blue announced last year's sixth overall pick Malik Nabers would suit up to play after finally passing concussion protocol. New York will need him—Big Blue boasts a bottom-5 drive success rate due to a lack of inefficiency, evidenced in their measly 4.8 yards/play. Starting RB Devin Singletary is tracking to return, logging three limited practices in a row (which could serve to be subtraction by addition). The Eagles looked a little rusty coming off their bye versus Cleveland last week, but wound up hanging 20 points against a formidable defense. Watch for PHI to establish the run with Saquon Barkley early and often in his first return to MetLife since departing for free agency.

CAR (1-5) at WAS (4-2): Heading into Labor Day weekend, most of the sharpest analysts would have probably been surprised if these two teams combined for four wins after six weeks. Well, that’s why we play the games. What Dan Quinn and the Commanders’ brass pulled off so far remains nothing short of remarkable—they’re a top-3 scoring offense, one of only seven teams averaging more than 6 yards/play, and their 61.8% drive success rate outpaces the entire league by 20%! Conversely, there’s injury-riddled Carolina, missing at least 10 starters by my count. Andy Dalton provided the type of false sense of security only a backup could, but that shine has dulled since. The mounting calls for Bryce Young aren’t quelling my fears of adding to their NFL-worst point differential …

LV (2-4) at LAR (1-4): Man, I stumbled on a historical stat for this game earlier in the week but can’t find it. It had something to do with the rarity of a (1-4) being favored by a touchdown, so let’s start there. A fire sale swept through Sin City, taking superstar WR Davante Adams with it. The move rendered the Raiders essentially talentless outside of rookie TE Brock Bowers, an early favorite to break the NFL record for single-game target share with Jakobi Meyers and Michael Mayer OUT. On the other hand, the Rams appear on the cusp of greenlighting Cooper Kupp for action and though his props aren’t currently listed, he’s a pop for a dozen grabs. Don't miss the forest for the trees, though—I’m wary of looking for a cover from a defense with the league's worst EPA/play.

KC (5-0) at SF (3-3): These real-time clash of titans stand as proof positive I still have a heart and love this game after decades of betting. Bound to inspire eye-rolls, you’re not finding any value in these games. Every player and coach will be in their bags Sunday afternoon in what’s assured to be a hard-fought game. Not to get too cliché, but winning is likely coming down to whoever makes the last play. If I do have a take here, it’s that the 47-point total feels more like a public reaction than a realistic expectation for explosives. These aren’t the high-flying Chiefs of yesteryear. In fact, both offenses’ success is predicated on sustained drives—they’re No. 1 and 2 in time of possession per drive.

NYJ (2-4) at PIT (2-4): New faces in new places will be the story on Sunday night in Steel-town. I get Justin Fields has some flaws in his passing game, but he’s protected the ball and I happen to like what I saw, at least enough to keep Russell Wilson on the sidelines. Bringing in Mr. Unlimited under center for the Steelers could be subtraction by addition, hurting their own cause by removing a major threat from an already-underwhelming unit. Jets’ fandom aside, Pittsburgh’s team total opening at 18 felt high to me from the jump—so obviously the move up to 20 from there surprised me. Even for a low-scoring affair, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets should control this one and prove the line a misprice (famous last words, I know).

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Let’s Brock and Roll …

  • Go Jets, Go!

NFL BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Brock And Roll

It’s time for this week’s edition of the “ball’s got to go somewhere, right?” I mentioned earlier that the departure of Davante Adams leaves the cheese that is Brock Bowers to stand alone. This reception line’s entirely too low in my opinion.

I get that the Raiders enter as touchdown underdogs, but that doesn’t mean the Rams will suddenly transform defensively and stop the opposition. Don’t be fooled by completion and attempt stats skewed by negative game scripts—Sean McVay’s defense ranks stone-cold worst in EPA/dropback, opposer passer rating, yards/reception, and splash plays.

Las Vegas decided to move on from Gardner Minshew in favor of Aidan O’Connell, the former fourth-round pick out of Purdue. The sophomore shot caller played pretty well against a very tough Pittsburgh defense if you ask me, fully understanding the assignment—protect the ball while funneling every third pass to Brock Bowers.

Antonio Pierce earned every bit of recent criticism but let’s give credit where it’s due—at least he knew tight end is just a label. Bowers’ 29.4% target/route last week with AOC under center wasn’t the only part of his game mirroring that of a primary WR. Just look at Bowers’ pre-snap alignment (image below), that’s no coincidence. Expect double-digit targets every single week until further notice …

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

🔮 All aboard an LA RB … but which one? Freedman delivers winning Week 7 props.

🏆 Need an NFL DFS fix? We’ve got you covered.

💰 Before you confirm your bet, confirm it with our NFL Game Model.

🤑 Fantasy Life … Where paydirt = payday.

👀 Time to tell the world … we back up.

NFL BETTING

Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Let’s Go, Jets Go!

Considering my opening statement for the case above, there’s not much more to it in backing the Jets. Did Gang Green not just add an elite-level WR talent with experience in the system and continuity with the QB? And this is a pure-add, net positive. Adams will command attention outside the hash marks on every snap, opening up Garrett Wilson underneath. Mix in Breece Hall on release routes and the runway is cleared for a Jet takeoff.

And the Steelers are actively choosing to start Russell Wilson? Missing multiple offensive linemen? Against this Jets defense, allowing 18 points/game and 4.5 yards/play?

Clearly, I’m on the Jets on Sunday night and now it’s just a matter of approach—but therein lies the rub.

There’s a misplaced obsession with only betting games against the spread that I need to address briefly. Simply put, betting on the NFL is incredibly hard. It’s marbled in variance, that’s only escalated with the prevalence of risk-based analytics on fourth down. 

Long story long, points against the spread have a value. And in the vast majority of cases they’re being offered at a massive discount on the moneyline, if only you have eyes to see them. For a real-time example, you can find a metric ton of NYJ -1.5 tickets being placed right now at the current (-112) price. Now, there’s nothing wrong with that until you consider, at the very same provider, that you can bet NYJ ML at (-122). That’s one-and-a-half points for $10, or $6.66 per—an offer unavailable anywhere else in the casino.

Imagine betting the Jets but they only win by one point and you eat the L because you wouldn’t pay the difference? Can’t be me.

SHARP HUNTER

Are the Sharps Going Over?

Source: Sharp Hunter

I do not bet a lot of overs. We’ll get to that in a second. 

Totals, sides, whatever—we’re tracking sharp bets on everything at Sharp Hunter. It’s a great way to see where the sharp bets and sharp money are coming in across the NFL, MLB, and CFB. 

When I see the sharp money coming in on and NFL OVER—I take notice. 

The Commanders are between an 8.5 and 9.5-point favorite against the Panthers today, depending on where you’re betting. The total is 51.5 across the board. 

Those sharps I mentioned we track at Sharp Hunter are betting the over here and we have a Two-Bag Sharp Score to prove it. I can’t believe it, but I agree with them and I never bet overs. 

The Panthers (30th) and the Commanders (24th) are two of the worst defenses in the NFL when you look at their DVOA rankings. Their DVOA pass rankings—Carolina 31st and Washington 29th—even worse. Both teams should be able to move the ball. 

And the Commanders want to play fast. FTN Pace stats have them as the No. 1 no-huddle team in the league. Meanwhile, the Panthers are the fifth-fastest pace team when you look at seconds per snap. There is no milking the clock on either side. 

Yes, this is the highest total of the week. But you have two bad defenses and two offenses that are playing fast on almost every series. The Panthers playing from behind could speed this up even more. 

I don’t bet overs. I’m betting this over. And so are the sharps at Sharp Hunter. 

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