What else is in today’s newsletter?

1. The three best college games for your viewing pleasure on Saturday

2. Thor Nystrom details his favorite wagers for the Week 5 college slate

3. Watercooler: Can the Tigers finish off a remarkable comeback?

The Casual Fan’s Guide to College Football Week 5

by Matt LaMarca

Louisville at Notre Dame (-7.0)—3:30 p.m. ET on Peacock

Hanging on for dear life. That’s the best way to describe Notre Dame after a shocking loss to Northern Illinois in its second game of the season. The Fighting Irish have rebounded with back-to-back wins vs. Purdue and Miami of Ohio, but they’re going to need to basically win out if they want to get back into playoff consideration.

It’s a very similar scenario to what happened with the Irish last year. They had a three-point loss to Ohio State, but if they were able to win the rest of their games, they still would’ve had a shot at the playoffs. Instead, they went into Louisville and were handed a 13-point loss. That effectively ended their season.

Will history repeat itself in 2024? This year’s showdown will take place in South Bend, and you can expect the Irish to be extremely focused and motivated.

That said, Louisville is going to put up a fight. The Cardinals haven’t really been battle-tested yet, but they’ve been one of the top-scoring offenses in the nation at 47.3 points per game. Seventh-year senior Tyler Shough has been brilliant in his first three games with the Cardinals, racking up 13.3 adjusted yards per attempt with 8 touchdowns and zero picks. Expect another good one between these two squads.

Illinois at Penn State (-17.5)—7 p.m. ET on NBC

Penn State head coach James Franklin is calling for “white out energy” for this matchup, which is great news for college football fans. Expect Beaver Stadium to be absolutely rocking.

The Nittany Lions are widely expected to win this contest—hence the 17.5-point spread—but don’t sleep on the Illini. They’ve already managed to beat two ranked teams this season, knocking off No. 19 Kansas in Week 2 and No. 22 Nebraska just last week.

Penn State has had a really easy road up until this point. The Nittany Lions have beaten West Virginia, Bowling Green, and Kent State, so this will be their first real test. If they’re able to survive, they have just two real roadblocks left on their schedule (Ohio State and USC), so a trip to the playoffs is well within sight.

Georgia (-1.0) at Alabama—7 p.m. ET on ABC

No disrespect to the other two games, but they’re merely appetizers. This is undoubtedly the main course, with arguably the two best teams in the country doing battle.

Alabama has breezed through its first three games, beating Western Kentucky, South Florida, and Wisconsin by a combined margin of 147-26. Meanwhile, Georgia was pushed to the limit in its last contest, managing to escape Kentucky with a one-point win.

Georgia is well aware of the danger this game poses. The Bulldogs have lost just twice since the start of the 2021 season, and both of those losses came to ‘Bama. They still managed to win the National Championship in one of those seasons, but last year’s loss kept them out of the postseason.

This year’s Alabama squad feels a bit different. Nick Saban is gone, with former Washington coach Kalen DeBoer taking over in his absence. The early returns have looked promising—their average of 49.0 points per game is fifth in the nation—but they’ve yet to face a defense like Georgia.

This game simply has everything: Huge stakes, future NFL stars, and two programs that simply don’t like each other. I don’t go out of my way to watch every college game, but you best believe I’ll be parked on the couch on Saturday night.

College Football Bettors: Project every Week 5 spread, total, and more with our new CFB Game Betting Model, where we find the best edges on the college football slate FOR YOU!

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Best Bets for College Football Week 5

• by Thor Nystrom

Below is one of my best bets for this weekend in College Football Week 5, which is a mix of picks on the spread and player props.

Washington State at Boise State Pick

• The Line: Washington State (+7) at Boise State

• Adjusted Thor Line: Boise -4.8

In an anticipated shootout—the total was 65.5 points at the time of writing—we believe there is solid value on getting Washington State at a touchdown or more on the spread.

Wazzu remains undefeated following a 54-52 OT win against San Jose State. On the same day, Boise State beat FCS Portland State, 56-14.

To stick with Boise State, you must prevent RB Ashton Jeanty from running wild. While Wazzu’s pass defense has struggled thus far, the Cougars’ run defense has at least been adequate, ranking No. 68 in success rate and No. 34 in stuff rate.

Boise State has one of the nation’s best rushing offenses, of course. Jeanty is a problem. But BSU’s below-average passing game is likely to battle to a draw with Wazzu’s pass defense.

On the other side, Wazzu’s offense has shown to be both efficient (No. 22 marginal efficiency) and explosive (No. 10 marginal explosiveness), while being equally viable running and throwing. Wazzu QB1 John Mateer is a highly dangerous scrambler.

Boise State’s defense has quietly struggled this year, currently ranking No. 76 SP+. That defense has struggled to defend both the run and the pass. In addition, Boise’s defense has struggled at both efficiency (No. 86) and preventing explosion (No. 73).

In its only two games against FBS opponents this year, Boise State allowed 45 points to Georgia Southern’s Air Raid in a non-cover victory, and 37 points to Oregon’s spread offense in a comfortable cover (but SU loss).

Wazzu’s Air Raid is likely to cause problems for Boise’s defense. That sets us up for a shootout. The over is worth a look—these teams are a combined 5-2 to the over—but we’re going to take what we feel is a generous amount of points with a live underdog.

The pick: Washington State +7

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

☕️ Rise and grind. The Week 5 College Football Pregame Show, featuring Thor Nystrom, Coach Gene Clemons, and Eric Froton, kicks off Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.

👀 Still looking to lock in your bets for NFL Week 4? Matthew Freedman has you covered.

🐶 Geoff Ulrich hit a five-leg Underdog card for 65x in Week 3. Let’s run it back, shall we?

🎰 The UNLV quarterback drama keeps rolling. Circa Sportsbook has reportedly offered Matthew Sluka the $100k he was initially promised to return to school.

🐅 The Tigers were 500/1 to win the World Series on Sept. 9. Now, they’re on the verge of making the playoffs.

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