A Smash Spot For The Dirty Birds

Give us all the Eagles props ...

November 03, 2024

 

Nov. 3, 2024
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Sunday NFL Blitz Preview, Part II: Each Sunday, I crack open my binder to share what I’m watching for this weekend, with the second half of my personal Week 9 hand notes to help you finalize your prep.

If you missed the first half, here are Friday’s early-game breakdowns for your enjoyment.

John Laghezza

Broncos (5-3) at Ravens (5-3): Denver’s our weekly reminder of how crazy the NFL gets every year. The five-win Ravens, ranked sixth in the conference, host the Bo Nix-led Broncos … that currently sit above them in the standings (if the playoffs were to start today). What?!? Sean Payton detractors be damned, his defensive-led squad means business. DEN leads the NFL in yards allowed/play and defensive EPA—but has yet to face anything nearly as prolific as Todd Monken’s Ravens. Baltimore holds a dominant 10%+ lead on the field in yards gained/game heading into Sunday, where the unstoppable force truly meets the immovable object. Don’t count the ponies out of this one.

Bears (4-3) at Cardinals (4-4): If every bettor has teams they struggle to get a beat on, they could bill this as my battle of white whales. I had Chicago producing from the jump but smashed the eject button after losing to the Colts (yuck!)—only to watch them win three of the next four (only dropping the fourth on a Commanders’ miracle). Then I bet on Arizona to make the playoffs, who lost three of their first four. So, of course, I abandoned ship before their schedule got tough—then they pulled out a win in San Francisco. Crazy times we live in. Call me milquetoast but this one likely comes down to making the last big play because I’m smelling a low-scoring under.

Jaguars (2-6) at Eagles (5-2): Timing’s everything in this league and Philly’s Week 4 bye cured all that ails them. Winners of three straight, capped off by a statement win in Cincinnati, it’s all arrows pointing up for the Eagles. Jacksonville finally got positive play under center from Trevor Lawrence–but even if they can muster points against Philadelphia, is the pass D capable of stopping anyone? Through eight weeks, no other secondary allowed a season-long completion rate over 70% at over 11.5 yards/reception. Hard to win with that combo. Give me all the Eagles props this afternoon.

Cowboys (3-4) at Falcons (5-3): Few things headlining my notebook here besides the inflated 52-point game total. First, can the Cowboys ignite the league’s worst ground game with a healthy Rico Dowdle with newly-elevated Dalvin Cook in a must-win for Dallas? Imagine how different they might look with Tony Pollard right now. For the Falcons, it’s a matter of how long they can mask this defense with W’s—over the last month, no one's worse in terms of opposing drive efficiency, particularly on third down. CeeDee Lamb’s in line for a monster game with the Boys’ backs against the wall.

Lions (6-1) at Packers (6-2): Three words, must-see television. Division rivals, eyes downrange, vying for home-field advantage and perhaps a bye week come wintertime. What could be better? Reports suggest Jordan Love’s playing (groin) but frankly, I’d be surprised considering they have a Week 10 bye.

Rams (3-4) at Seahawks (4-4): Similar records with opposite trajectories when Sean McVay and the Rams head to Seattle. Los Angeles, summarily hand-waved by many after getting blown out by ARI, wins two straight, including one over a tough Viking team. Surprising many, Dianna Russini reported sophomore star WR Puka Nacua is now expected to play despite leaving practice early Thursday and logging a DNP Friday. Couldn’t be worse news for the Seahawks, whose defense completely disappeared while dropping four of their last five—including more than 30 points and 420 yards allowed per game in that span. Oof … someone out in the PNW could use a 12th man. 

Colts (4-4) at Vikings (5-2): Adjusting to shakeups at critical offensive skill positions on both sides will likely tell Sunday’s prime-time tale. Can the Vikings, losers of two straight, keep their offensive ship en route without all-world left tackle Christian Darrisaw?  Minnesota’s perpetual pass-funnel defense can set a more traditional schematic having one less set of legs to worry about with newly anointed Week 9 starter, (very) seasoned veteran Joe Flacco under center. While I can’t argue the complexities of benching Anthony Richardson right here, it’s more or less a consensus Flacco presents the best chance to win now. Then it’s just a matter of how long until Indy abandons the run.

You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Kyren Carrying The Load

  • Hurts, Don’t It?

  • Sharp Hunter: Vikings-Colts on SNF

NFL BETTING

Running Against The Wind 🏃🏽‍♂️🏈—Kyren Carrying The Load

Matthew Stafford and the Rams look for their first win away from Hollywood against a Seahawk defense in desperate need of a dub. Seattle’s defensive disintegration began in the Motor City in Week 4, where it has accelerated into an abject train wreck since:

  • 421.2 Yards Allowed Per Game—31st

  • 6.5 Yards Allowed Per Play— Last

  • -0.13 Defensive EPA/Play—29th

  • 46.3% Rush Success Rate Allowed—29th

  • 167.6 Rushing Yards Per Game—Last

  • 7 +20-Yard Carries—T-30th

As slight favorites on the road in a potentially tightly contested game script, I’m expecting more of the same from Sean McVay and the Rams’ staff. Literally no one features a single back more than LAR. In fact, Kyren Williams’ 78.5% carry share laps everyone in the game today (image below).

So if it ain’t broke, I ain’t breaking it. No need to get cute here. Kyren’s No. 2 on Dwain’s Utilization Score as the sole engine in the Rams’ ground attack, cruising over 19.5 attempts in four of his last five games—averaging 22 carries per contest in that span. I think we get heavy doses of Kyren, early and often.

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

🔮 Whether you’re looking for Week 9 props or Futures to lock in … Freedman has you covered.

🏆 Need an NFL DFS fix? We’ve got you covered.

💰 Before you confirm your bet, confirm it with our NFL Game Model.

🤑 Chase paydirt with Chase Brown … Week 9 Anytime TDs.

👀 32 Facts, 32 Teams … Ian drops some knowledge that could help with props.

NFL BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Hurts, Don’t It?

“Hurts, don’t it?” … is exactly what the Eagles may be saying to the Jaguars by the time the dust settles Sunday. I’ve bucked the trend to support Trevor Lawrence for being erroneously dragged. He’s played better than the psychopaths on Twitter/X may lead you to believe—one of only four QBs with more than 16 drops and a 3.0%+ disparity in NextGen’s expected completion rate compared to the actual.

Anyway, nothing will paper over just how bad this Jaguar defense continues to play week in and week out:

  • 6.0 Yards Allowed Per Play—T-31st

  • 34.9 Yards Allowed Per Drive—T-30th

  • -0.25 Defensive EPA/Dropback—31st

  • 111.8 Opposer Passer Rating—31st

  • 271.1 Passing Yards Allowed Per Game—31st

  • 6.2 Yards After Contact Per Reception—T-30th

  • 34 +20-Yard Completions — 31st

For the life of me, I don’t understand it. Why is Hurts’ passing line coming in lower than every other opponent Jacksonville’s faced besides *checks notes* Deshaun Watson? That’s for me to bet and us to find out. The Eagles won three straight off the bye, clearing today’s prop in two of those by an average of almost 40 yards. In fact, the only game Hurts fell short was game script dependent, in the Barkley-centric blowout versus NYG (image below). 

In an attempt to manifest inner tout peace and check my ego at the door, I climbed Mount Fantasy to consult our resident gurus Dwain McFarland and Matthew Freedman, who both project Jalen Hurts to sail past this bar by double-digit yards.

NFL BETTING

The Sharps Love Sam Darnold … Should You?

I don’t think I would have predicted it, but Sam Darnold is the starting quarterback of a really good Vikings team. 

We’ll see them in prime time on Sunday night hosting the Colts. The Vikings are favored by 5 or 5.5, depending on where you’re betting. 

The sharps we track at Sharp Hunter are always betting. And on Sunday night they’re betting the Vikings—we’re showing a One-Bag Score on Minnesota as the home favorite. 

I’m betting with the sharps here. I love the Vikings—why is this line not higher? 

Let’s calm down with the Joe Flacco Lovefest. 

He’s an upgrade over Anthony Richardson, but he’s still Joe Flacco. Maybe he was once elite, but not in 2024. Sunday night he catches what might be an elite Minnesota defense, DVOA’s No. 1-ranked unit. 

The one game Flacco threw for over 200 yards this season came against the Jags and their 32nd-ranked pass defense.

The Vikings bolstered their offensive line this week by trading for Cam Robinson. The Colts D has been cooked by opposing tight ends and the Vikings expect to get T.J. Hockenson back this week.

Minnesota comes off a bit of a break here and per Action Network, teams at home off extended rest in a night game, when the opponent is on normal rest or less, are 22-9 SU and 18-12-1 ATS since 2019.

A good spot for Darnold to throw here, and a good spot for the Vikings. I’m betting with sharps—give me the Vikings.

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