A Rookie QB That Has My Attention

And a Week 10 prop to boot ...

November 06, 2024

Nov. 6, 2024
PRESENTED BY

Total Recall: “One must first have a solid foundation.” It's an age-old adage, simple and true. As someone who builds forward-facing arguments to forecast publicly, I find this core philosophy resonates with me as a root principle. Nothing great has ever been built of mind or matter without an unshakable base.

John Laghezza

Every Wednesday marks square one to set that foundation for the NFL week ahead—and the best place to start that grind comes directly from the books themselves. Remember, the house can’t help but tip its hand by posting live team totals.

For whatever reason, NFL totals can be hard to wrangle. In my never-ending quest to make this newsletter an irreplaceable part of your daily routine, I charted all of this week’s baseline (-110) team totals to highlight outliers.

Allow me to do the dirty work so you won’t have to.

Quick Takeaways: Usually the first to jump on shorting the highest total, underestimating Lamar Jackson’s weekly pathway to failure. Thanks but no thanks. Plus, we’re not even sure of his status. Sure, Lou Anarumo’s Bengals played up on defense lately, but the competition's stunk, and Baltimore’s a buzzsaw. Instead, my hairy eyeballs are focused on the Rams’ inflated 27-point total vs MIA—something they’ve only done once since their bye and twice all season.

My favorite low bar never seems to change. You guessed it. Anytime Drake Maye’s under center for New England sitting next to a 17 or lower at even money, the young man has my attention—regardless of opponent.

It’s Total Recall …

You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  1. Wednesday Charts

  2. The New York Prop Exchange

NFL CHARTS

Wednesday Charts🧠📊—Team Expected Points Added Per Play

Each week we present the league through the lens of a single image. While no one picture or stat can truly shoulder such a load, learning to take the temperature of each team’s offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA) will sharpen your game—this per-play metric that defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score.

It provides an analytically dense, perspective-laden snapshot that is absolutely worth familiarizing yourself with.

NOTE: The cross is league average. Also, positive EPA is ideal on both sides of the ball—so in this specific case below, the closer to the upper-right corner, the better a team’s combined performance in both phases.

THE GOOD:

DET—The best get better. Dan Campbell probably wishes the playoffs started tomorrow, no one can even sniff his Lions right now (though I’m not sure why you’d want to). The winner of six straight, including four on the road, Detroit sure feels like a Super Bowl contender. DET does it all on both sides with an ability to defeat opponents in a myriad of ways—even if the play-calling gets a little aggressive for my taste at times.

PHI—Philly’s not only won four in a row off the bye but looked pretty darn good in the process. Unfortunately for the Eagles, several injuries popped up at once among their most explosive playmakers. Reports claim both Saquon Barkley (back) and A.J. Brown (knee) remain on track to play. However, given their immense potential impact, I’d hold off on betting anything just yet. If up to me, I’d sit them outright and roll the dice on beating Cooper Rush with backups.

THE BAD:

CAR—I don’t consider myself a historian but we’re witnessing the unwinding of the worst trade in history. The Panthers somehow went from two bonafide superstars in Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore to zero explosivity anywhere on the offense with a mortgaged future on the horizon.

SEA—Seattle sits below .500 after winning their first three, holding just one opponent under 26 points since. Nobody needs a rest more than the Seahawks, especially if it means the potential return of DK Metcalf—sometimes schedule makers have the magic touch.

THE UGLY:

NO—Hard to get down worse than catching a beating from the Panthers. The Saints just dropped their seventh contest in a row, losing their best player Chris Olave in the process. It’s ugly.

DAL—That’s a wrap. I’ve mentioned the inherent vulnerabilities of Dallas’ improper, top-heavy roster several times—and the chickens come home to roost. Dak’s out for certain with CeeDee Lamb’s status in question as well. Don’t take the points. Don’t be cute. Abandon ship.

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

🏀 The NBA is back with a massive Wednesday slate … betting edges to exploit.

📊 Movers and Shakers entering Week 11. Updated College Football Power Rankings.

👀 College hoops are here. Odds and Picks for the Women’s CBB season.

🏆 Updated Heisman Trophy Odds. Ashton Jeanty, Travis Hunter, and more.

NFL Betting

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Chase Is On The Case

I’ll keep this brief since most of us were up until dawn, finding ourselves suddenly craving the hair of the dog for one reason or the other. Me? I’m just glad it’s over …

What started as an epic divisional matchup featuring two teams going for it all, finds itself surrounded by question marks. Seemingly out of nowhere, MVP favorite Lamar Jackson missed practice with a knee injury that the entire betting world’s waiting on. Make sure to check tomorrow’s intro for a breakdown of Thursday night’s game.

Again, this one’s pretty simple—falling right in line with our season-long theme of filling fresh voids. Sadly CIN’s starting RB Zack Moss’ neck injury will cost him “at least this season”. This leaves Chase Brown as the only Bengal with a backfield touch this season. Yes, Cincy signed Khalil Herbert which could muddy utilization going forward. That said, the number nine-seed Bengals are in no position to fool around—I can’t imagine Zac Taylor relying on a player off the street with his season on the line.

Without Moss last week, Brown showed bellcow ability, posting a Hulkish 32 touches, and was the only back to touch the ball in a decisive win against the Raiders. I’m assuming Lamar plays which means the Ravens will score. Therefore I’m preparing for Borrow to throw and there’s no way to convince me Khalil Herbert learned enough signals to contribute meaningfully in pass protection (not a historical strong suit of his either).

So why is Chase Brown’s reception line set at only 3.5 against these Ravens despite making 5 catches last week in a game with a 53 total and no Tee Higgins? I’m not sure but there’s a legitimate chance Brown doubles this.

11 NFL PROPS IN A ROW! WOW!

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