The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

🔮 Who’s going where in the first round of the NFL Draft? We have some ideas.

📘 Important lesson: Bet on rookie WRs. And keep betting on them.

🎯 This Dart throw might be a bulls eye for some NFL team.

🐬 What must the Miami Dolphins do to return to the playoffs?

⭐️ Remember Efton Chism and other small schools NFL Draft prospects.

1️⃣ Almost half the money is on this player to be No. 1 in the NFL Draft.

🦅 DeVonta Smith joined some elite company.

MLB Team Preview⚾🏴‍☠️—Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh finished last year at 76-86, just 17.0 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central crown. Ooooh, so close (sigh). Clearly the front office has some work to do if it plans on surrounding superstar ace Paul Skenes with a winning roster anytime soon. (taps foot) Any day now, fellas… 

Granted sometimes my memory’s closer to a goldfish than the steel trap of my younger years—but for the life of me, I couldn’t remember the last big free agent signed by the Buccos. 

Turns out, that’s for a reason—it’s been nearly a decade! Yes, you heard that right. Per B/R Walkoff, the last time PIT signed a multi-year free agent was all the way back in 2016! What?!? Malpractice, I say!

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA/R/RBI/HR/SB)

1. Tommy Pham, RF: .244 / 51 / 44 / 11 / 10

2. Bryan Reynolds, LF: .264 / 79 / 78 / 19 / 9

3. Oneil Cruz, CF: .251 / 84 / 82 / 28 / 22

4. Andrew McCutchen, DH: .231 / 52 / 52 / 14 / 4

5. Joey Bart, C: .233 / 39 / 43 / 11 / 1

6. Spencer Horwitz, 1B: .252 / 50 / 49 / 9 / 2

7. Nick Gonzales, SS: .261 / 53 / 53 / 11 / 5

8. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B: .251 / 59 / 54 / 11 / 13

9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 2B: .262 / 54 / 43 / 6 / 15

Hitting Overview: Hard to view Pittsburgh’s mean expectations as anything other than a train wreck at this point. I’d be worried about this arrangement heading into late August, let alone Opening Day. 

Per THE BAT X, not a single Pirate projects to bat over .265 (47 total) ... or score 85 runs (26 total) ... or knock in 83 RBI (33 total) ... or hit 29 homers (23 total). Or steal 23 bags (31 total). Yikes. 

It’s a veritable point-of-failure buffet over in Steel City—age concerns (Pham, McCutcheon), health concerns (Bart), and general lack of experience (Horwitz) all may rear their ugly heads this season. For reference, early W/L projections spot PIT two wins better than last year—but still tied with CIN for worst record in the NL Central. Going to be another long season for our Pirate faithful barring any late additions.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

1. Paul Skenes, RHP ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

2. Mitch Keller, RHP ⭐⭐⭐

3. Jared Jones, RHP ⭐⭐⭐⭐

4. Johan Oviedo, RHP ⭐⭐ 

5. Bailey Falter, LHP ⭐

Pitching Overview: Finally, a glimmer of hope (maybe). It’s painfully obvious already—if the Pirates are going to make any noise whatsoever and avoid another season of basement-dwelling, they’ll need their starting five to get them there. I did notice something interesting regarding this staff, however. Pittsburgh’s got a type, and it’s focused on command/control. Not one of the four starters that threw a pitch last season (Johan Oviedo missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery) posted a walk rate over 7.7%, or a ball rate over 34.4%—both head and shoulders better than the league average. This singular trait could extend outings and keep PIT from totally bottoming out.

There are no questions or doubts at the top spot—Paul Skenes is the man, and perhaps even better than the incredible amount of hype heaped upon him. The 22-year-old phenom does it all—pumping 100-MPH gas with elite command that generates whiffs and chases while keeping the ball down. Oh, and he has five (!) quality secondary pitches to fall back on—four of which boasted a 29% whiff rate. Most pitchers would do backflips to have two. 

The thought there could be another level for Skenes given his age and lack of professional experience is downright terrifying. The issue for bettors? He’s already the runaway favorite to lead MLB in strikeouts at (+400). As much as I could drool over his highlights all day, as a habitual cheapskate that price presents a major challenge.

Behind their bona fide ace comes a decent two-three punch—before falling off a pretty steep cliff. Old reliable innings eater Mitch Keller is back, followed by Skenes’ fellow sophomore Jared Jones, who I’m particularly interested in. Early in teh futures-betting season, it’s important to highlight those players you're disparate from the market on. We’ll get into Jones in the betting section of today's newsletter down below (in the business, they call that a tease).

Conclusion: Realistically, things seem pretty bleak for Pittsburgh, at least on the surface. The lineup contains glaring holes, their rotation is not getting to the finish line as constituted, and the front office didn’t add to a bullpen that finished bottom-5 in ERA, WHIP, and losses. 

If there’s a glimmer of hope on the horizon at all, I guess it’s a pairing of up-and-coming minor-league stars. Both RHP Bubba Thompson and 2B Nick Yorke should see time in the majors this season, hopefully providing a boost for the Bucs. Hard not to see this squad as having way more room to move down than up, especially if they suffer any injuries to a top-heavy rotation. 

Looking to get a head start on your NFL futures for 2026? Look no further …

Look Into My Crystal Ball🔮—Futures Bets

THE BET: Pirates Regular-Season Wins Bands On DraftKings

69-74 Wins (+370) 0.25u

75-80 Wins (+270) 0.25u

The thinking is pretty simple and it works perfectly within our analysis. I love the price and more specifically this play’s ability to cross over the standard (-110) baseline of 77.5 wins with extra room to the downside. If Pittsburgh manages to clear the over, I doubt it’s by more than a hair while also providing a nine-loss cushion to the south in the event things go sideways. 

The NL Central is among the weakest in MLB, which should prevent a total disaster. It’s also why the Pirates won 76 games each of the last two seasons and project to stay right around that range across the board.

THE BET: Jared Jones +160 Strikeouts (+100) On DraftKings 0.50u

Going by the excitement I alluded to earlier surrounding 23-year-old RHP Jared Jones, you know I ran to smash the Over on this one. In what I consider to be a pretty low bar for success, Jones appears to be getting punished for an underwhelming 4.14 ERA. He also missed some time last year around the All-Star Break with a strained lat—but quickly put any concerns of mine to sleep when he sat 98+ MPH in his final start of 2024. Luckily for us, we couldn’t care any less about surface pitching stats with such strong inputs under the hood.

For starters, Jones posted an excellent +28% strikeout rate throughout his MiLB career—good for a very healthy 10.6 K/9. Sure, those numbers dipped a touch in his rookie campaign (26.2% K, 9.7 K/9) but it’s not like they fell off the page. Newsflash, Major League Baseball is hard. I know, groundbreaking stuff from yours truly. 

Jones’ arsenal’s got all the whiffs you could ask for in a fastball, with top-5 spin (RPM) to boot. Only 15 regular starters generated a higher Swinging Strike rate on their four-seamer—one of my favorite things to look for in sustainability going forward. Mix in a minimum 2585 RPM (!) and +32% whiff on both the slider and curveball and what do you get? An open runway to a definitive cash providing he stays healthy.

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

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